Libyan Oil Exports Rise Amid High OPEC Compliance

February 3, 2018

Back in December we discussed how US oil inventories had been drawn down by a hundred million barrels from their peak last March, channeling Dr Evil from Austin Powers.

In recent weeks we have been on tour, presenting our six-month proprietary outlook, and have been highlighting the case of another 100 million barrels - this time via the cumulative drop in Saudi crude exports over the last year.

The chart below shows the cumulative drop in OPEC exports in 2017 versus the October 2016 reference level. It highlights that OPEC on the aggregate reduced imports by a total of %180 million barrels (meeelion barrels) last year.

Breaking down that 180 million-barrel drop, Saudi Arabia accounted for about 100 million barrels - the driving force behind the rebalancing effort.

While others also showed compliance with the OPEC production cut deal by cutting exports (such as Kuwait and Angola) these efforts were offset by rising exports elsewhere from the likes of Libya and Nigeria. On the aggregate, OPEC members minus Saudi accounted for just under half the drop in exports last year:

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